EL NIÑO WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO 2010, SAYS UN AGENCY

The United Nations agency dealing with weather, climate and water says an El Niño event has begun in the tropical Pacific and is likely to continue into early 2010.

El Niño and La Niña bring significant temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean: an El Niño event sees a rise in temperatures and La Niña witnesses a drop in normal temperatures.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world, especially in Latin America, Australia and East Asia, which can last for a whole year or more. Both El Niño and La Niña can disrupt the normal weather patterns and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said today that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.

"Scientific assessments of these observations indicate that this warming resembles the early stages of an El Niño event," the Geneva-based agency stated in a news release.

"Although some of the atmospheric changes associated with this warming have been initially slow to develop into classical El Niño climate patterns, the warming is now well-established enough for scientists to conclude that it is consistent with a basin-wide El Niño event."

In its most recent update on the subject, WMO stated that the expectation is for El Niño conditions to very likely prevail through the remainder of 2009 and into the first quarter of 2010.

"This expectation is based on model forecasts, and the typical life-cycle of El Niño events, which once established in the early-middle part of a year, usually persist through into the first quarter of the following year."

The agency added that El Niño typically occurs once every four to five years, so the current assessments translate to a "substantially" elevated risk of an El Niño developing later this year.

At the same time, it noted that, in considering risk management strategies, it is important to keep in mind that many unusual climate patterns and significant climate extremes occur independently of El Niño.
________________

GLOBAL RECESSION TO HAVE LASTING IMPACT ON LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIES – UN OFFICIAL

Higher unemployment figures, lower economic growth, falling trade and stubborn fiscal deficits are among the lingering effects the global financial crisis will have on Latin American countries, the top United Nations official for the region warned today.

The after-shocks of the global meltdown have infected the region through a sharp decline in remittances, shrinking external demand for goods and services and changes in the relative price of exports, said Alicia Bárcena, Executive Secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).

Ms. Bárcena highlighted trade as one of the hardest hit sectors in the region, in her opening address to the 2009 Summer School on Latin American Economies, whose theme is "The Real Impact of the Global Economic Crisis: A Latin American Perspective."

In April, trade was slashed by almost 32 per cent compared to the same month in 2008, with a 29.2 per cent drop in exports and 34.6 per cent decrease in imports during the same period, Ms. Bárcena told the gathering at ECLAC headquarters in Santiago, Chile.

She added that a cut in foreign direct investment of between 35 and 45 per cent is expected this year, while unemployment is estimated to climb to 9 per cent and money sent home by nationals living and working outside the region will fall by some 5 to 10 per cent.

Although there are signs of economic recovery, it will be a slow, gradual process, Ms. Bárcena warned the some 29 post-graduate students from Argentina, Belgium, Bolivia, Canada, Korea, Chile, Ecuador, France, Italy, Mexico and Spain, who will complete the ECLAC seminar on 30 September.

During the economic recession in the 1980s, it took 12 years for economies in the region to recover but as long as 24 years for social indicators to reach their pre-crisis levels, she said, predicting that the future comprises of lower growth in developed countries, more participation of developing countries in global growth and stricter regulations on financial systems.
________________

BIOENERGY BOOSTS RURAL DEVELOPMENT IN POOR NATIONS, UN-BACKED STUDY FINDS

Bioenergy production reaps benefits for rural communities in poor countries, according to a new United Nations-backed report that examined projects in one dozen countries spanning the globe.

Although the bioenergy debate has centered on liquid fuels used for transport, over 80 per cent of bioenergy used involves other sources, mainly wood, that are used for household cooking and heating in the world's poorest areas, the study – published jointly by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United Kingdom's Department for International Development (DFID) – said.

Concern over the impact of transporting the biofuels on the environment, water resources and food security has obscured bioenergy's many positive benefits for poor people in rural areas.

Among the benefits of bioenergy cited by the study are increased natural resource efficiency because energy can be created from waste that would otherwise be burned or left to rot and the creation of useful by-products such as cheap fertilizer.

In the 15 'start-up' bioenergy projects in 12 countries in Latin America, Africa and Asia assessed by the report, "the local community benefited from improved energy access both for domestic and business use," said Oliver Dubois, a bioenergy expert in FAO's Natural Resources Department.

He said that "virtuous cycles" have developed where people have access to the energy needed for development without funds flowing out of communities or depleting local natural resources.
________________