EL NIÑO WEATHER PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO 2010, SAYS UN AGENCY

The United Nations agency dealing with weather, climate and water says an El Niño event has begun in the tropical Pacific and is likely to continue into early 2010.

El Niño and La Niña bring significant temperature fluctuations in surface waters of the tropical belt of the Pacific Ocean: an El Niño event sees a rise in temperatures and La Niña witnesses a drop in normal temperatures.

These temperature changes are strongly linked to major climate fluctuations around the world, especially in Latin America, Australia and East Asia, which can last for a whole year or more. Both El Niño and La Niña can disrupt the normal weather patterns and have widespread impacts on climate in many parts of the world.

The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said today that sea-surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific had risen to between 0.5 and 1 degree Celsius warmer than normal by the end of June, with similar temperatures in July.

"Scientific assessments of these observations indicate that this warming resembles the early stages of an El Niño event," the Geneva-based agency stated in a news release.

"Although some of the atmospheric changes associated with this warming have been initially slow to develop into classical El Niño climate patterns, the warming is now well-established enough for scientists to conclude that it is consistent with a basin-wide El Niño event."

In its most recent update on the subject, WMO stated that the expectation is for El Niño conditions to very likely prevail through the remainder of 2009 and into the first quarter of 2010.

"This expectation is based on model forecasts, and the typical life-cycle of El Niño events, which once established in the early-middle part of a year, usually persist through into the first quarter of the following year."

The agency added that El Niño typically occurs once every four to five years, so the current assessments translate to a "substantially" elevated risk of an El Niño developing later this year.

At the same time, it noted that, in considering risk management strategies, it is important to keep in mind that many unusual climate patterns and significant climate extremes occur independently of El Niño.
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VOLATILE CLIMATE, POLITICS LEAVE ACCESS TO FOOD PRECARIOUS IN MADAGASCAR – UN

Access to food for the people of Madagascar remains unreliable because of the impact of natural disasters, which routinely strike the island State, and continuing political tensions, a United Nations report warned today.

The joint Food and Agricultural Organization (<"http://www.fao.org/">FAO) and World Food Programme (<"http://www.wfp.org/">WFP) mission tasked with assessing crop and food security in Madagascar underscored the effect a run of cyclones on the east coast in 2008-2009 and several years of drought in the south has had on the country's crops.

In addition, the political crisis – involving the resignation of President Marc Ravalomanana in early March, amid a dispute with the mayor of the capital, Antananarivo, Andry Rajoelina, who now leads the country – combined with the global economic recession has had repercussions for public finances, exports, tourism, unemployment and the national currency, and a knock-on effect on the agricultural sector, according to the FAO-WFP report.

The report noted that food production varies widely across the Indian Ocean nation with good rainfall benefiting the 2008-2009 harvest in the centre, north and west of the country, as well as favouring rice-growing areas with an estimated 8 per cent increase in paddy production to over 4 million tons of rice.

However, the drought devastated the south, home to some of the country's poorest communities, has caused national maize, sweet potato and cassava production to slump.

The production of maize in the province of Taliara in the south, which contributes 30 per cent of the national total, is expected to halve next year, and its sweet potato harvest, around 20 per cent of the national total, will slump by around 20 per cent, according to the report. In addition, cassava production in the area will fall by 15 per cent.

The report stressed that the amount of cereal required by the country, including cassava and sweet potato, will exceed total cereals availability by about 206,000 tons. Although commercial wheat and rice imports would normally cover the shortfall, a Government announcement of its intention to import 150,000 tons of rice to be sold at moderate prices could unsettle free-market trade.

Commercial interests are likely to "wait-and-see" how market prices react to Government imports, which could lead to delays or breakdowns in stocks, causing a price explosion during the lean season – beginning in September-October – reminiscent of the timing of events that led to the 2004-2005 food crisis.